Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

554
FXUS61 KCLE 040758
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
358 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slightly lowered dew points across Northwest Ohio this
afternoon. Also increased PoPs Tuesday afternoon into early
Wednesday morning as persistent, widespread precipitation is
expected.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and evening along a surface trough. A few storms
could become strong to severe across portions of North Central
and Northwest Ohio.

2) Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will arrive
across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Some nuisance and/or
minor river flooding is possible.

3) A chilly air mass will return across the region towards the
end of the week with another round of Frost conditions possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak mid-level shortwave will move northeast across the Ohio
Valley ahead of a stronger upper-level trough near the Upper
Great Lakes today. A narrow corridor of higher dew points in
the 50s and mid-level lapse rates of near 7 C/km will accompany
this feature, potentially yielding MLCAPE values in excess of
1000 J/kg by this afternoon and evening.

The latest SPC SWODY1 marginal risk encompassing portions of
North-Central and Northwest Ohio appears reasonable at this time
given the environment in place (modest westerly bulk shear of
around 30 to 35 knots and a favorable DCAPE gradient in place),
though recent guidance has continued to trend convective
initiation further north and northwest. If these trends
continue, much of the area may not see much precipitation until
later tonight.as the cold front approaches. The main hazards
with any stronger storms that form would be isolated damaging
wind gusts and large hail.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A secondary area of low pressure will develop along a slow-
moving cold front as it approaches the Lower Great Lakes region
on Tuesday. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are
expected with the front, especially late Tuesday into Wednesday,
with high probabilities for much of the area to receive at
least 1 inch of rainfall, with a narrow corridor up to 1.5
inches possible. Although not particularly impressive amounts,
the recent wet pattern coupled with a widespread rain could lead
to some nuisance road and/or minor river flooding and will be
something to watch in future forecast iterations.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another anomalously-cold air mass will enter the region towards
the end of the week, with 850 mb temperatures falling to near or
just below -2C. Though not as cold as the previous cold air
mass over the region, there does exist some potential for
another round of Frost conditions, especially Thursday night
into early Friday morning.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Sct-bkn mid-level clouds across north central Ohio will move
east and exit the area through 12Z. Isolated sprinkles or light
showers are possible but unlikely to occur at terminals. A
gradual increase in sct-bkn VFR clouds is expected through the
afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
generally after 20Z. A capping inversion is likely until we
moisten sufficiently aloft with the arrival of shortwave energy
towards late afternoon to kick off activity. High resolution
models depict scattered showers across northeast Ohio along a
warm front, with better support for thunderstorms moving into
Northwest Ohio and expanding east across Lake Erie towards
CLE/ERI through the evening. Removed the tempo late in the
period at most Ohio TAF sites as the coverage of thunderstorms
was not clear yet and instead went with VCTS for most terminals
until confidence increases in timing and coverage. Did keep a
TEMPO for TSRA in at TOL where confidence was higher.

A low level jet with 35-45 knots near 2K feet will move across
the area through 12Z and have low level wind sheer in at all
terminals where wind gusts are not expected. Wind gusts return
to all terminal by 14-16Z Monday with gusts of 22-28 knots on
Monday afternoon.

Outlook...Periodic rain showers with non-VFR are expected Monday
night through Wednesday morning with occasional thunderstorms.
Showers return again Thursday night into Friday with the next
front.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds of 15-20 knots will spread east across Lake Erie through 8 AM
and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM. Higher
waves will tend to remain in the open waters given the offshore
flow. Most of the lake will see winds decrease into the 10-15 knot
range today but locations near the lakeshore, especially in the
western basin may occasionally be 15-20 knots. Winds will increase
again to 15-20 knots across most of the lake tonight ahead of a cold
front. The front will sink south across the lake on Tuesday
afternoon with wind decreasing behind the front. Northerly winds of
5-15 knots will persist through Thursday before backing to
southwesterly again on Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10